Saudi Arabia's ageing population could hike public debt: reportDUBAI - Saudi Arabia's growing elderly population could put pressure on public finances and increase government debt over the next three decades, a new report revealed.
The forecast hike in public debt could happen in the absence of government reforms to contain the cost of age-related spending, according to S&P Global Ratings in a report published on Monday (July 11).
In line with United Nations figures, S&P forecast that the Saudi population will expand rapidly from 32 million to 46 million between 2015 and 2050. Over the same period, the proportion of elderly people will rise to 15 percent of total inhabitants from 3 percent today.
As a result, age-related government expenditure on pensions and health care would rise to 14 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2050 from 6 percent today, S&P said.
"This could lead to a rapid increase in Saudi Arabia's net debt ratio to 340 percent of GDP by 2050 if governments were to take no further policy action," said S&P Global Ratings analyst Trevor Cullinan.
"The sovereign credit ratings on Saudi Arabia would decline to speculative-grade in such a no-policy-change scenario, which is not our base case," Cullinan said.
"Owing to growth in the young population, subscribers to Saudi Arabia's generous pension system have been outstripping growth in the number of beneficiaries, contributing to the overall financial health of the system," said Cullinan. "However, over time, we believe Saudi Arabian governments will likely consider demographic reforms to the system to ensure its sustainability."
S&P Global Ratings' analysis of Saudi Arabia is part of a global study conducted to analyze the cost of aging. ICA/Expat 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